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Last week, during their annual conference in Frisco, The Texas Pecan Growers Association estimated the crop at 257 million inshell pound. This is +/- 3% less than the estimate of 266 million inshell pounds announced by another group of growers, on June 21 during the TriState ArkLaMiss Pecan conference. The significance of these 2 reports is that the US growers are expecting a crop below its normal 300 + million pounds.
Whereas there are no formal estimates of the Mexican crop our Mexican affiliate with 35 years experience working with Mexican growers is projecting a crop equal to or larger than last years crop of 300 million pounds inshell. It is also worth noting that the vast majority of the Mexican pecan production is located in the northern state of  Chihuahua, Mexico. When combining the Mexican crop with the very large production in the South Western region of the US, over 70 %  of the total North American crop will be in a 400 mile radius of El Paso, Texas and the adjacent city of Juarez, Mexico.. Our principle is located in Juarez, Mexico which is in the middle of this vast production area. 
Total annual Pecan kernels shipments to Europe are at 24 million pounds. Pecans are getting well received in the Eu markets and this market continues to out pace growth even in the US. 
Our principal being BRC certified and one of the largest if not the largest sheller in the industry is buying only the highest quality raw material available.
With a lifetime experience in the Pecan shelling business SNRA is the low cost producer within the pecan industry. For these reasons “The Pecan Team “ has partnered with SNRA as its exclusive representative to the European markets.  
We encourage you to contact us when your needs require pecans. 
We remain at your service for advice and prices. We are also happy to organize a visit to SNRA.
 
The Pecan Team
orders@caplenco.be

On June 20-21, 2019 during the TriState ArkLaMiss Pecan Conference the US pecan crop was estimate at 266 million inshell Lbs, a shorter crop than normal. This largely reflects on the damaged trees suffered during last fall’s Hurricane. Most handlers believe it is a (too) low estimate!
Question is: How much is the damage caused, last year by hurricane Michael?
 
Mexico, as the Southern hemisphere crops, will have a strong crop, for Mexico it is estimate slightly larger than last year: 300 plus million inshell pound.
 
Prices continue to firm and expected to continue until new crop begins to move in volume (early November). Pecan pieces still underpriced.

China buyers are quite in North America and buying out of South Africa.
 
It is interesting to look at the current report on the Pecan outlook. Cold storage holdings (when converted to inshell equivalent) is like last year same time (200 million Inshell Lbs). As it is very high, carry in stocks will be adequate.
We have seen, this year, that Shellers are more anxious to convert to kernels to complete their shelling cycling so that repairs can performed in time for the new crop. There isn’t necessarily a correlation that would imply consumption is up just because shellers have decided to convert faster to kernels. Kernels stored at freezer storage will retain comparable Quality as if stored inshell.
It is more efficient to store kernels in freezer storage than in shell in freezer storage.
Kernels take up 1/2 the space versus in shell.
 
So, in summary possible a            300 million pound US crop
with and additional                        300 + Mexican crop
and a                                             200 million pound Sept carry over
would indicate ample supple for the 2019/20 crop season.
 
However, getting to new crop could see rising prices for good quality halves with pieces remaining soft.
 
We remain at your service with The Best Pecan at The Best Price!
Sincerely,
 
The Pecan Team
Orders@caplenco.be
 

We believe buyers today recognize the market is at a 10-year low and might be inclined to pull the trigger now rather than to wait.
Once the market begins to rise it can get away from you in a hurry, especially this late in the season with so much already sold.

We don’t feel any sheller has an open position.

Most nuts left are in the bigger growers’ hands who tend to wait for a higher market.

So, the question is: will the market stay where it is or go up or down?

Are prices much below usd 5,00/lb (C&F Europ) a legitimate Price bases on lower raw material?

We continue to worry about an eventual rise in raw material.
We feel several major shellers are dramatically under bought and when they begin buying it could increase field pricing.
China to date have been reluctant buyers. With current field prices at very competitive levels their entry would  put additional pressure on remaining  inshell. 
On the other hand, whatever growers (larger growers) who still have their crop in barns on the farm and not in cold storage must decide very soon as to sell or hold as warmer weather is moving in and they must go to the expense to go to public cold storage.

The Pecan Team would like to stay close to your purchasing decisions and make sure you are buying the best nuts at the best price.
 
Please be aware that we offer the finest Pecan from SRNA Commodities - Sam Pecan
       - In the pecan business for over 40 years
       - Processing only TOP US and Mexican Pecans, weevil free!
       - Very large capacity (70 Million Inshell Lbs)
       - 5 log killing step validated process
       - BRC certified with complete traceability system
       - No Floating Machine, no issue on Micro!
       - Batch processing providing more and a better control, benefits color, taste, moisture.

We’ll be honored to make you a competitive offer.
Sincerely,
The Pecan Team
orders@caplenco.be

CALIFORNISCHE AMANDELEN

Markt draait, prijzen stijgen weer!
Na een korte dip in de markt, als gevolg van een positieve nieuwe oogst, stijgen de prijzen opnieuw tot bijna het niveau dat werd bereikt vlak na de vorstperiode die Californië in februari doormaakte.
Aanvankelijk praatten tweedehands verkopers de in EU-verhandelde prijzen (vooral voor nieuwe oogst) in de markt naar omlaag.
Het gevoel in Californië veranderde echter niet veel, omdat de Californische industrie in het algemeen niet geloofde in een dergelijk hoog niveau voor de nieuwe oogst. Temeer omdat NASS in de tussentijd het “bearing acreage” voor 2018 oogst “maar” op 1.070.000 acres heeft ingeschat.
Californië legt meer de nadruk op de hoge maandelijkse exportcijfers uit huidige oogst en is daardoor niet ingegaan op de goedkopere aanbiedingen van speculanten. Ten slotte verdwenen die speculatieve offertes en men zag opnieuw vraag voor Californische amandelen.
Californische verkopers blijven vasthouden aan hun prijsideeën en zien geen reden om korting te geven op nieuwe oogst-posities.
Gezien de aanhoudende hoge exportcijfers 2017 (YTD + 11,7%) en gezien het feit dat de vraag naar amandelen nog steeds levendig is, zien we niet al te veel kansen voor een zwakkere markt, zij het dat de NASS-subjectieve schatting van 10 mei met een positieve verrassing naar buiten.

AMANDES CALIFORNIENNES

Le marché tourne, les prix remontent!
Après un léger repli du marché, en raison d’une nouvelle récolte importante, les prix ont encore augmenté pour atteindre le niveau atteint juste après la période de gel que la Californie a connue en février. Initialement, les vendeurs « en seconde main » sur le marché européen, ont tentés de faire baisser le prix principalement sur des positions de la nouvelle récolte.  
Le sentiment en Californie, cependant, n'a pas beaucoup changé, car l'industrie californienne ne croyait généralement pas à un niveau aussi élevé pour la nouvelle récolte. D'autant plus que NASS a estimé entre-temps la "bearing acreage " pour la récolte 2018 a "seulement" 1 070 000 acres. 
Les vendeurs Californiens mettent plutôt l'accent sur les chiffres exportations qui, pour la récolte actuelle, sont assez élevés et ils n’ont pas fait suite aux demandes des spéculateurs.
Finalement ces offres spéculatives ont disparu et à nouveau la demande pour les amandes californiennes est revenue à des niveaux de prix plus élevés.
Les vendeurs californiens restent ferme sur leur idée de prix et ne voient aucune raison de faire des concessions de prix pour la nouvelle récolte.
Compte tenu des exportations toujours élevées en 2017 (11,7% depuis le début de l'année) et du fait que la demande pour les amandes reste forte, nous ne voyons pas trop d'opportunités pour un marché plus faible, bien que l'estimation subjective du NASS du 10 mai peut venir avec une surprise positive.
Californische verkopers blijven vasthouden aan hun prijsideeën en zien geen reden om korting te geven op nieuwe oogst-posities.
Gezien de aanhoudende hoge exportcijfers 2017 (YTD + 11,7%) en gezien het feit dat de vraag naar amandelen nog steeds levendig is, zien we niet al te veel kansen voor een zwakkere markt, zij het dat de NASS-subjectieve schatting van 10 mei met een positieve verrassing naar buiten.

How much damage hurricane Irma made on the Georgian pecan seems difficult to estimate.
Nevertheless, the US Production is estimated at 274 Million in shell Lbs. This number might be increased somehow if we include the Pecan Production of some smaller states generally producing Native Pecans.
Harvest of pecans will finish mid/end January, and this is another 60 days.
Adverse weather might affect the total quantity, and, in the pecan world, one should never be too optimistic.  
The carry out of 2016 into 2017 is about equal to the past 5-year average carry out/in.
We have reports indicating that the Mexico crop is smaller. The total available this year for USA and Mexico will be very similar to the 2016 crop.

Customers have now started their price negotiations and are evaluating volume and delivery period.
 
Some suppliers (maybe 1 or 2) have offered kernels from Mexican processors to EU at prices well below the market value. 
Those products always carry a higher risk than the products from US processors due to varying food safety, labor and quality standards; however, this cheaper price has garnered interest. 
We are ready to listen to your inquiries and promise to reply with a competitive offer.
 
Sincerely,
Caplenco/EU-Golden Pecan Team

See herewith the 2017 California almond estimate.
 
The almond estimate was released on July 6, 2017.
The estimate is for a 2017 California almond crop of 2.25 billion lbs.
This is a little lower than some had expected.
For now, we expect little change in the market prices.
We see little reason for the market to go lower.
We expect some buyer who have been waiting for lower prices to come into the market to cover some of their needs

The Caplenco Team
orders@caplenco.be
 

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Please find herewith  The Almond Position Report which was released on March 9, 2017.
While shipments for February were slightly below last year, we are still well ahead on an annual basis.
Recently secondhand prices have fallen a little, but  packers are slow to lower prices.
 
The bloom is over and the general feeling is for an average size almond crop.
For now a good range would be 2.0 to 2.15 billion lbs 2017 crop.
We shall see.
 
Please advise any buying interest.
Caplenco Team.
orders@caplenco.be
 

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A picture from the almonds fields close to the Mediterranean coast.
Today the conditions for the bloom are exceptionnal. But we have at least another six weeks frost risk. This is quite a long period for Spain....
Anyhow it is spectacular, enjoy!

Find herewith (pdf Download), from the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council, their latest Statistical report. 

Caplenco Team
orders@caplenco.be
+32 2 568 00 68

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Please find attached the latest Market update (pdf) from Green & Gold Macadamias.

This report is referring to the good 2015 crop. European buyers behaved cautiously due to the weak €uro. In April '15 China supply chain was disrupted as importers are trying to avoid the import duties.
2016 season starts with a very little world carryover.
2016 Crop expectation very similar to 2015: 
   - Worst drought for Southern Africa. Approx. 10 % Drop
   - Drought also affecting emerging macadamia origins
   - Low rainfall in Australia.

Current Market outlook:
   - Tight supply
   - Demand from China might result in serious volatility of the prices
   - Strong increase of macadamia nuts as an ingredient
   - Prices remain firm at similar levels as those of 2015
   - Recommand buyers to cover their future needs, as supply will be tight.

New crop shipments will start in May/June 2016

Kind regards,
CAPLENCO TEAM
orders@caplenco.be 


 

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